Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last 5 years

S&P 500 return over last 5 years before dividends: +80% (closer to 90% counting dividends).

BTC total return over last 5 years: +62%.

In fact, BTC has even underperformed the conservative Dow Jones over the last 5 years now, and it's been absolutely demolished by gold's +153% return. Could any long term holder imagine BTC getting less than half the return of a yellow rock, despite having max drawdowns 5x as large?

This is the first time it has underperformed the S&P 500 over a 5 year period. Each cycle produces worse risk-adjusted returns as the new ATH becomes a smaller multiple of the old ATH, yet the drops remain nearly as large as before.

2012 - 2013: ~600x returns followed by -87% decline

2015-2017: ~125x returns followed by -84% decline

2018-2021: ~22x returns followed by -77% decline

2023-2025: ~8x returns followed by -50% decline (so far)

Or expressed as multiples of the prior ATH:

2017 high was 17x 2013 high

2021 high was 3.5x 2017 high

2025 high was 1.8x 2021 high

The current bear market in crypto should not surprise or worry anyone, as it's right on time given crypto's history. What should worry folks is that the magnitude of the rallies in between bear markets are shrinking much faster than the magnitude of the bear market drawdowns. This pattern indicates that BTC has become a much worse investment from a risk/reward perspective.

Edit: Oddly people are debating the basic facts of this post. Bitcoin closed at $39k exactly 5 years ago, check Trading View, CoinMarketCap, or whatever your favorite daily price history source is. Today it's at $63k. It's not that hard to look up the daily price history and do basic division.

https://imgur.com/a/F9l7HKI