Is “Up-vember” coming? Bitcoin’s year-end seasonality in focus

I came across an interesting chart showing Bitcoin’s historical seasonality — comparing the average price pattern from 2012–2024 with actual price action in 2025.

The pink line shows Bitcoin’s average yearly behavior: mostly range-bound through mid-year, followed by a strong tendency to rally from October through December. The black line shows 2025 YTD performance, which just pulled back to the lower end of that historical range.

This latest sell-off may fit a common market pattern: a sharp flush to clear excess leverage and stop-outs before resuming the broader trend. In that sense, it might have “reset” the structure just in time for what has historically been a strong seasonal period.

It also aligns with the idea of the “debasement trade” — investors rotating into hard assets when macro or monetary uncertainty rises. Bitcoin has sometimes acted as a partial hedge in those periods.

Obviously, nothing guarantees a rally this time. But statistically, October and November have often been favorable for BTC. That’s why some are calling for a possible “Up-vember.”

Curious to hear what others think — does seasonality still hold relevance in today’s market?