Bitcoin's reclaiming of $110,000 just days after the largest single-day liquidation in history ($19.1B) confirms the asset class's resilience. The market is positioned for significant structural upside driven by policy, not short-term speculation. The crash was a final leverage cleanse.
The core conviction is that the macro necessity for institutional capital to hold BTC now overrides short-term volatility.
1) Trillion-Dollar Policy Tailwind: The DOL formally rescinded the restrictive 2022 guidance, de-risking fiduciary liability for fiduciaries to offer crypto in 401(k) plans. This opens a path for the gradual, multi-year influx of potentially hundreds of billions in patient capital.
2) ETF Juggernaut Overrides Panic: U.S. spot ETFs collectively attracted $12.8 billion in net inflows in July 2025, a month where they surpassed the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) for the first time. This sustained flow is a structural floor.
3) The Gold Correlation Flip: BTC's correlation with Gold has risen sharply to above 0.85 (up from -0.8 in 2021). This establishes BTC as a recognized "digital gold" store-of-value, confirming its utility across multiple macro regimes.
The market has priced in the short-term fear. Is the persistent structural support from the 401(k) policy and sustained ETF inflows the dominant driver, or is the underlying fragility of the $482.4 billion in unrealized US bank losses the true price anchor?
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